UNTOLD ARSENAL

Blimey - I write a bit about the financial situation and how Liverpool Insolvency might be in trouble, and the next thing you know, they are on the brink.

Liverpool (to recap) can only pay the interest on their loans by constantly being in the final stages of the Champs League.  Without that income they don’t have enough to survive.  In essence they have been holding on desperately hoping for a buyer.

Now two things have happened.  First, all the banks are being nationalised, as the west turns to the socialism (in the sense of the state owning some of the main aspects of economic society) that it rejected with a sneer during the Thatcher-Regan era. 

In such an era the banks will be ready to loan dosh to firms that do something for the economy, rather than those that are already totally bust and with no way of paying their interest.

So the situation was already desperate for the Insolvency when suddenly, out pops the news that your local friendly Arabs (the Maktoum family) are not interested in buying a bankrupt club after all, and actually would rather take over Charlton Athletic.  Charlton, who have a solid local support policy, sound finances, and a neat new-ish stadium, look a great bet for investment, and one thousandth of the price that it would cost just to pay off the insane debts that Liverpool carry.

Sheikh Hamdan Al-Maktoum, son of Dubai’s ruler, Sheikh Mohammed, is the man of the moment for those in south London who consider Millwall to be not quite classy enough (and maybe just a smidgen too neo-fascist) for their taste.

George Gillett and Tom Hicks are now not so much kicking themselves as being kicked by every Scouse being who can find them.  Indeed the Arabs also turned down the chance to buy the League’s laughing stock  Newcastle Zebras.

Hicks even went to Dubai to try and virtually give away his 50% stake in the insolvent Liverpool, but came away still owning the shares he does not want.

Then Mike Ashley - the man filmed drinking booze in view of the pitch at the Ems had a bash, but found that his beer gut ruled him out (Islamic religions don’t like the booze).  

Rothschilds, one of the banks yet to be nationalised by the state not only dealt with the nearly extinct Liverpool but also worked with  Charlton.  That’s the link - these spiv bankers get everywhere.

Now here’s the really funny bit.  Liverpool always support the football authorities since the days when they were found guilty of match fixing, and yet retained their place in the First Division (this was when Arsenal were promoted from Second to First, in return for their not insisting that the guilty clubs be expelled).    The Premier League and Football Association (that Liverpool always kow-tow to) have ownership rules that state that a single owner can’t buy two clubs in the same competition.  So if the Arabs buy Charlton they can’t touch Liverpool.

The funny thing is that this rule came in after Sir Henry Norris, chairman of Fulham bought the bankrupt Woolwich Arsenal in 1910.   Norris wanted Arsenal to play games at Fulham’s ground, but when refused he moved the club to Highbury.  The League and FA brought in the double ownership rule to stop it happening again, and it is that very rule that is going to send Liverpool over the edge.

While Liverpool have zero money and live totally on what they can borrow week by week, Charlton exist on loans from the directors - exactly as Arsenal did in the Norris era.  Charlton may have annoyed their support by the sale of Bent to the Tiny Totts, but that laughable 16 million pounds made them an attractive nearly debt free club - and that’s why the Arabs are in.

Obviously Arsenal always have been and always will be my club, but I have a soft spot for Charlton.  They don’t have pretensions beyond their position.  When they were forced to ground share they worked hard to rebuild a stadium in their homeland, and cater for local people.   They don’t play stupid games and aim to be a top three club, and like Arsenal, they don’t go in for crazy borrowing.

As for Liverpool, insolvency will follow meaning the creation of a new club, and at least 10 points deducted.

When it comes to economic comment the Guardian tends to be fairly sound.   Here they are on the Liverpool situation.

“Liverpool are very heavily in debt and do not own a cash-generative stadium. If they do not qualify for next year’s Champions League group stage - which, even if they do not progress, provides a minimum £10m in revenues - they could not service their borrowings.”

Just think of that for a moment.  The club is so fragilethat just a single season where they don’t manage to get into the Champs League and then past the group stages and they will not be able to pay their debts.  Could be this year, could be next.   One average season away from disaster.

Now the Guardian on Manchester United:

“Provided buyers could be found (no longer a given as sovereign-wealth funds equivalent to the Abu Dhabi United Group spy far more profitable targets at bottom-of-the-market bargain prices) both clubs would have to be sold. If they were “flipped” in a fire-sale it would probably be at a considerable loss to their American owners.”

Manchester are already unable to pay the interest on their debts, and all that is left is a sale - but a buyer is no longer certain.

Chelsea, (by which they mean CSKA Fulham of course) the Guardian says, is safe, as long as its owner is interested.  Arsenal’s debts are all secured against the stadium, at a very low rate of interest (unlike the debts of the northern clubs which exceed the value of the assetsand so are at much higher rates of interest), so they have no problem.

What the Guardian does not say is that Arsenal’s future is based on crowds of 50,000 and Champions League once every four year.  We are doing rather better than that at the moment.

Thus it looks like we will soon see a Big Two - both in London - with Manchester Arab playing catch-up.

As for such joke outfits like the Tony Totts they are a club that has been bred on the basis that they get into Europe and are then sold on as a top four club.  Yes, well. 

Although the Tinies, like Everton and the Newcastle Zebras are for sale no one is rushing to the door with a cheque book.  The clubs that are going to new ownership are the little ones.  QPR went last year to a consortia of Formula 1 men and an Indian company.  Charlton, it seems, is about to fall into Arab hands.

And why not?  Easier to build from the bottom with fans grateful for any success than have to deal with a bunch on endlessly whinging Scoucers and their enemies from just down the road who think that success can be bought eternally without ever having to pay the bill.

So, sorry Tiny Totts, I rather think that it is all over for you.  Just as it is for Manchester Bankrupt and Liverpool Insolvency.

Let’s sit back and enjoy the show.