Untold Arsenal on Twitter @UntoldArsenal
Transform your life: Become a professional writer
New update on Woolwich Arsenal’s definitive history
———-
By Walter Broeckx
Sometimes one thing leads to another in research and having presented facts and figures of the current season (where we look at the bias of the referees when it comes to home teams and away teams) I wanted to dig a bit deeper. That’s the case here.
And so to satisfy my own curiosity I wanted to see how the refs have been doing not just in this season but also in the previous seasons. Because after all maybe this could be the fluke year and I could look a bit ridiculous if it turns out that in the other seasons there was absolutely no home bias to see.
So I took the numbers of the seasons starting from the infamous season 2007/2008 until this season.
In this article I present the figures from the last five seasons. I will not bore you with how each season went for each ref. And if you really want to see those numbers just let me know and I will add them in another article.
But for now I wanted to take the average numbers for each ref in those seasons. I also only included the refs that are currently in charge in the EPL. (It might be interesting to see how Uriah Rennie did in the 2007/2008 season but that is history). What counts is the long term and the current refs in the EPL and how they act.
So remember according to the Chief of the Referees there is no bias at all in the EPL. Let us see at the numbers on yellow cards. Let us check his words:
|
Name |
AVERAGE HOME |
AVERAGE AWAY |
| Phil Dowd |
40% |
60% |
| Mike Dean |
48% |
52% |
| Martin Atkinson |
43% |
57% |
| Mike Jones |
43% |
57% |
| Howard Webb |
45% |
55% |
| Kevin Friend |
39% |
61% |
| Andre Marriner |
41% |
59% |
| Mark Clattenburg |
42% |
58% |
| Lee Mason |
43% |
57% |
| Chris Foy |
41% |
59% |
| Peter Walton |
41% |
59% |
| Michael Oliver |
43% |
57% |
| Anthony Taylor |
36% |
64% |
| Mark Halsey |
42% |
58% |
| Lee Probert |
42% |
58% |
| Stuart Attwell |
46% |
54% |
| Neil Swarbrick |
41% |
59% |
| Jon Moss |
42% |
58% |
|
42% |
58% |
And for those who should have doubt about my previous numbers it now is absolutely clear to see for anyone who wants to see. THERE IS A BIAS IN FAVOUR OF THE HOME TEAMS when yellow cards are handed out.
Each and every ref active in the EPL has over a period of more than one season given more yellow cards against visiting teams than they have done against the home teams.
I knew this even before I started looking for the numbers. Because it is not just Untold that has done this research but also others have done this before. And by others I also mean people who are better equipped to investigate such things than those of us here at Untold Arsenal.
And still Mr. Mike Riley is brainwashing us through the media that there is no such thing like any bias in the EPL.
In total the home teams get only 42% of the yellow cards. This is of course down to the pressure that the home crowd is putting on the refs. A dangerous tackle from the home team will be mostly answered with a kind of silence from the home crowd. And a dangerous tackle from a visitor will be answered with the home crowd shouting for revenge and raising the noise level. 40.000 people shouting for a card is a lot noisier than 4.000 visiting supporters.
It just is harder to resist 40.000 shouting voices than it is to resist 4.000 shouting voices. The difference in atmosphere is gigantic as you can imagine. Most people react to this and so you get the home and away bias started. And refs are human and can be influenced.
If we take a look at the total number of those 5 seasons we can see that Mike Dean comes closest to having no home or away bias. He gives 48% of the yellow cards against the home team and 52% against the visiting teams. Now I would like to give credit to him but then I realised that in those 5 seasons we had Mike Dean a lot. And we had him a lot when Arsenal was away. So maybe, just maybe, his numbers are a bit coloured because of all those away games he has done of Arsenal? But nevertheless his numbers are looking the best of them all. Damned if I didn’t just hurt my fingers typing this.
The ref in the second place is Stuart Atwell and he is closely followed by Howard Webb. The rest hover around the average.
The best ref to have at home, when it comes to avoiding yellow cards is Anthony Taylor. He obviously allows a lot more from the home team than from the away teams. So having him as the away team means you have to be extra careful to avoid yellow cards. If you want to meet Kevin Friend and Phil Dowd make sure you meet them at your home ground.
Finally I would take the opportunity to have a look at the numbers of Mike Riley himself. The man who claims there is no bias and so no home and away bias. If I can believe the numbers in his 12 years in the EPL he has given 1021 yellow cards himself. And 434 were given against the home team and 587 against the away teams.
This comes down to 42,51% of the yellow cards against the home teams and 57,49 % against the away teams. Maybe he is not aware of these numbers. But if you become head of the refs those are the things you should take a look at if you really want to improve the refereeing standard.
But if you find it normal that there is something like home bias then maybe just maybe you find other bias also acceptable and part of the game?
—————————–
The referee series: what is wrong with the Premier League System
The stats that the Ref’s Association quote are simply totally wrong
Giving each ref each team just twice a season would solve the crisis
Mike Riley and the garden of secrecy
How many wrong calls do refs make per game – and in favour of whom?
Extra! Extra! Read All About It!
“The Great Turnaround Trumps Rednose XX”
Story of the Season, says vox populi!
@ Dutchie
Don’t really understand that link to the referees religion football bais is one thing, however bringing religious connotations into football is very dangerous
The challenge to the refs is to try to make correct decisions when there are 40,000 fans wanting one to be biased! While some bias home and away is most likely unavoidable, what would you think is an acceptable long term average? Would say 45-55 be acceptable? But if the average long term gets outside that range then the ref must take composure classes to help him make correct decisions under pressure! Or should it be possible for refs to get a 47-53 long term average?
The best way to assess statistical significance is to compare the ratio of cards against over possession against, though not all cards are handed on footballing action, as some will be given for time wasting or arguing with officials, etc…
So, if team A has 3 cards with only 25% possesion against while team B has 1 card and 75% possession against, the referee would indeed look suspicious (well, for me, they always do).
The apparent disproportionate percentage of yellow cards for the visiting team may be explained by the fact that home teams tend to have more ball possession than visiting teams.
As an Arsenal fan, I find it extremely annoying that there some card parity despite thefact that the Gunners are notorious for their very high share of possession at home (and also away).
Ray from Norfolk.
A shame that football doesn’t have a territory statistic. Even then, if we consider that a team like Arsenal looks to play mainly in their opponents half, such a team could concede an awful lot of Yellows stopping counter-attacks.
Likewise if you sit deep, you will recycle possession by interceptions and tackles from the front, both of which have a low chance of being carded. However you ought to concede a lot of freekicks doing this.
http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2012/04/what-incredible-fluke-xxv_12.html
MU 73- greatest amount help from refs in the league.
MC 56 -slight advantage
Arsenal 45 -below par
Tottenham 66 -good advantage
Newcastle 44 – below par
Chelsea 52 – near break even
This is great bias.
Arsenal got a slightly better treatment lately. In the first half of the season Arsenal RI was about 38.
@ H. Raymond Tahhan,
I still don’t see how that represents a bias by the referee. If the yellow cards happen to be valid cards, then it can only be put down to dirty tactics or foul play.
As I said earlier, what we really need to look at for bias is the number of decisions incorrectly awarded. We can’t complain about yellow cards if they are deserved.
By the way, I do agree there is a massive bias towards Arsenal, just that this doesn’t go anywhere near to proving it.
All,
This little tidbit from the football is fixed blog;
“It is not conspiratorial to declare that when Foy, Walton or Mason have been refereeing Manchester Utd Premier League games, the most powerful team in the land have only been defeated once in 47 games.
This isn’t an angle ’tis public data. Check it.”
stuart,
Walter keeps telling you that he’s not saying that this stat is proving a bias against Arsenal per se; but rather that he is showing that Micky R is wrong – as are zillions of others, including Don Fungus who yesterday said – when they endlessly and mindlessly say; it all evens out in the end. It is worth taking down the authority of this stupid statement because it numbs thought and blinds eyes, and you know this.
Gooner Murphy, Dutchie,
Gooner Murphy is absolutely right.
@ Dutchie
Your comment “he spent an important part of his life in Liverpool where he developed sympathie for Everton as he is Catholic and went to a Catholic Institution” the comment Implies that he has a sectarian bais and not a football or a prochial reason for his poor record.
@ gooner murphy
Well i didn’t want to offend anyone. I’m trying to say that while he was studying in Liverpool, he might have developed a sympathie for Everton because of the enviremont he was in.
He was referee of a Liverpool match once, and he did send off two Liverpool players if i’m not mistaken. Both cards were later dismissed by the FA.
the worm begins to turn. Graham Poll questions why referees are getting it so wrong: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2128384/Graham-Poll-Why-referees-getting-wrong.html
some people are reading your columns walter. now is the time to start banging my drum of 2010 when i called for regulating referees.
I think that I know how the PGMOB got their stats on referee calls. If you take every event, every occurance in a game of football over 90 minutes, that counts as a ‘call’.
So, looking at the offisde call stats in a game involving me and my friends, every time I pass to my mate in D_Fence, that goes down as a good offside call because the lino had to figure out whether my teammate was offside or not (please ignore the fact that we are in our own half most of time). For every pass. Over the whole game. That’s how they get such high figures.
And when they publish these fine looking figures, it is reassuring is it not?
Bob,
I must have mis understood, but I didn’t get where Walter said that. I don’t understand the point of this article then.
If I told you there are more red cars in my street than the next street, does that make mine a better street? AM I on track here? I am lost
I’ve looked again and I still don’t see the point being made. What I understand is that the advantage to the home team doesn’t even out over the season. Well of course, how can the home team cancel it out when they are the away team and the opposition are the home team?
I think the answer to this lies elsewhere, not in the decision making of the referee but with the players frame of mind.
@ Dutchie
No offence taken by your comment.just expressing that we all need to be Impartial when we are stating our opinion the written word can just as easily be misread as a refs decision and I enjoy reading your blogs on untold
Coming back and looking through:
perhaps in reality it’s “Martin A. Hyde”? Who knows… Either way, don’t marry journalists, they get on your nerves. I know, my fiancee is a proofreader at a newspaper.
1) It’s MARTINA Hyde
2) Referee bias: I’m of the breed called “unconvinced” and I’ll always stand by the statement that what we actually need is not a revolution that would send all the current “bent” refs burning on crosses, but rather a good, working system that would allow them to perform their job as they should.
There should be a panel that would review refs abilities in communicating with players; it should regularly test their knowledge of the rules; it should regularly review their performance (preferably after every round of games); and it should not shirk off from the idea of suspending a ref for making an utterly wrong call (Lee Mason and his linesman should be penalized with the same ban Derry got).
There should be observers at the game, who would then review the footage, confronting wht they saw with their own eyes with what the cameras caught. That way, the panel should be able to assess whether these were errors or biased decisions.
There should be additional refs, either on the pitch or next to the goals – so that the main ref doesn’t have to account for everything that happens on the pitch and can rely on another to make calls when the action moves fast between the sides; and so that you don’t get so many wrong penalty calls.
There should be some way of making this kind of a system work. If the hierarchy wasn’t so rigid, perhaps the Rileys, Dowds, Deans and Masons (huh) of this world would not act the arrogant SOBs they do now.
3) Journalists: the ethics of this trade are in dramatic decline all over the world. It’s not just football, it’s also politics, culture, people… Few journalists actually work the way they used to in the past. Now, you simply take a news, put in some of the spin you’re currently on, and you have a ready-made piece. Now, whether this constitutes bias: I’d say it doesn’t constitute bias in itself, but it creates a friendly environment, in which it is easy to overlook a clearly visible tendency because you’re too lazy to think for yourself. You get the same with politics: how many journalists just report what they hear without assessing it? How many times do you see a journalist actually reflecting on the views proffered by a politician? You usually get what amounts to a relay system. And the referee bias story is something that doesn’t go with the system. It turns the focus away from the games; it goes against the “Respect” campaign which is/was widely publicized; it’s too serious to be funny or catchy. Who wants to read of bent refs? If you’ve seen one, you want to skin him alive; if you’re concerned, you go to Untold and read/write about it; if you just want football (and football news), you shrug and read Guardian some more.
So, what I see happening is capitalism colliding with ordinary people. The more it collides, the more unstable it becomes. The more the refs fail at their job, the more it collides.
Don’t know what Orwell would say about all this, though.
Just a thought here guys, but maybe the bias isn’t of the referee and is of the way the game really is played. Thinking about it, when teams play away from home they tend to be more solid, with the home fans egging their team to play more open attacking football. As a result the away team has to do more defending. Common sense suggests that over a period of time more defending = more fouls, so more yellow cards to the team committing these fouls. I’m not suggesting there isn’t a bias, if these guys have followed football to the point where they know the laws, surely they’ve followed a team too(?) but it definitely makes sense for there to be more away yellow cards if you apply my possibly outrageously incorrect logic to each football match.
This is full of crap. Of course the away team should receive more yellow cards. This is because on average the home team is better. You have to control of ball posession, where the ball posession has taken place and then you still haven’t accounted for that the away team presumably plays more aggressively.
I checked for a bigger database on penalties and there is still a home bias… the way you doing it here, comparing the percentages, however, is outright BS, sorry.