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This weekend’s matches, stats, predictions (and transfers?)

Matchday 3

By Arun

As the transfer market is coming to a close today, the hit hungry media is busy hosting live 24 hour blogs for the ‘frantic Friday’. At the time of the writing, it seems that Bendtner has gone on loan to Juventus, and Park has also gone on loan, while we might sign Essien on loan.

Keeping the transfers aside, let’s focus on the matches this weekend,we will be visiting Anfield to take on Liverpool whereas Chelsea won’t be in action as they have already played their game in the midweek. Let’s see what we have got this weekend:

1.      Tottenham v Norwich(Saturday – 15:00)

Tottenham look for a win after Luka Modrić finally departed for Real Madrid. Though they have signed Dembélé, it will be very difficult for him to follow in the footsteps of Modrić. Both teams have lost 1 and drawn 1 so far in the league.

Norwich has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 34 Premier League away games. Norwich’s visit to Tottenham last season was a surprise one as they came out as 2-1 winners. During that time, Tottenham was struggling amid the aftermath of 5-2 defeat at Arsenal. Even this time around, with a new manager, it all doesn’t look rosy for them, especially since they lost Modrić. Six of the last 8 matches between these two have ended in away wins.

Though Tottenham are highly favoured for this tie, they might find it difficult to beat Norwich.

 

2.      Man C v QPR (Saturday – 17:30)

Man C takes on QPR after a poor performance at Liverpool last weekend. Man C might feel that they were lucky to get away with a point last Sunday. QPR were hammered by the high flying Swansea in their opening match but since then they have been busy in the transfer market. Their signing of Júlio César is beyond my understanding as is the question why would he move to QPR from Inter.

This same fixture last season was drama at its best and QPR conceded twice in the injury time but survived due to Bolton losing. Man C’s defence has struggled this season and they have already conceded 4 goals in 2 matches. Man C has scored in their last 32 games at home and QPR has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 17 travels. The only good looking stat for QPR coming into this game is that Cisse has scored in last 6 premier league away games.

It looks like an easy victory for Man C.

 

3.      Liverpool v Arsenal (Sunday – 13:30)

Arsenal play their last game before the international break. It’s surprising that we have failed to score for the first two games and our longest run without scoring, at the start of the premier league season, is 224 minutes which was set last season. Though, defensively we are looking a lot better. Liverpool played a good game against Man C but their defensive problems let them down and they had to settle for a draw.

Arsenal hasn’t lost at Anfield in their last 5 league visits winning 2 after going behind in all the five matches. The three draws also include the 4-4 draw. Liverpool had won only 1 game against Arsenal in last 10 matches losing 3. The only victory came at the beginning of last season. This fixture has also seen an own goal in 3 matches in the last 2 seasons with Koscielny, Reina and Ramsey sharing the honours. This tie also has a history of late goals with 7 goals in the 90th minute and later in the last 7 matches and 5 such goals in the last 4 matches.

The main threat for Arsenal in this match is Suarez who has scored 2 goals in his last 2 matches including a beautiful free kick against Man C. He just always manages to turn in the box and doesn’t bother about diving (last season comes to mind). Nuri Sahin may also prove to be another big threat but I don’t see him starting against us. It’s Liverpool’s defence which gives me confidence about this game. They have conceded 5 in 2 league matches so far. A Reina howler in the Europa league is yet another indicator that their defence is capable of big mistakes. If Koscielny and Szczęsny are fit, then we should be able to deal with their attack and I don’t see us not scoring against them. It’s going to be very vital for us not to concede first as it will only invite more pressure on us and leaving us open for counter attacks.

As there are no matches in the next week, it’s important for us to win this game as it will keep the media silent for 2 weeks; otherwise we will be just reading about how we are going to cope with the loss of RVP and Song etc. A win here is also vital as it means we will be only 4 points off the top of the table with big games against Man C and Chelsea in the league and Montpellier in the Champions League to follow this one.

Consider the form of Liverpool’s defence; I can see us winning this one.

 

4.      Southampton v Man U (Sunday – 16:00)

Man U visit St. Mary’s Stadium as Southampton returned to top flight after finishing as runners up in the championship. The match between these two teams saw the end of Southampton’s stay of 27 consecutive years in the league come to an end. Their return to it hasn’t been good so far as they, along with Aston Villa, are pointless after 2 games.

Man U has won on their last 4 visits to Southampton in all competitions but they have lost 3 of their last 4 away games. Man U will be without Rooney as he got injured last week. Man U’s win percentage drop by 16% when he’s not in the team. Southampton has conceded 5 goals in the league so far and lost to what might turn out to be a six pointer against Wigan at home without scoring.  It seems like an easy victory for Man U.

It also seems like a 3-day weekend with the transfer stories giving us a joy of their own. I hope that this weekend sees us registering the first victory and goals of the campaign.

The club that changed football

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75 comments to This weekend’s matches, stats, predictions (and transfers?)

  • avatar iniez

    I’ll start by saying I’m still happy with the squad we have and I’m still excited by the season ahead. A striker and holding midfielder would have been nice though. Now I don’t know what arsene is planning, but a view from the outside tells me that we could have used another striker as back up as we really only have two strikers that I would trust up front (I don’t mean to slate chamakh but he’s just not doing it right now). Having said this, I could have lived without an extra striker but I feel like we really needed another holding midfielder. Think of it as a replacement for song, or someone to fill in for arteta, but I would say this is an area that could do with an extra man. Touch wood, if arteta was to be injured, I think we would lack that little something in midfield that he gives us. Another holding type midfielder who can read the game well and put in a good tackle/pass would have been ideal. Again, I don’t know what arsene has in mind but I do think he was looking for a player in both positions, the pursuit of mirallas and sahin tell me this.

    But something else tells me that they wouldn’t really be first teamers, more so bit-part players. Mirallas cited lack of playing time as the issue, and sahin was only a loan (though we did seem interested in a purchase at the end of the season). I could be off, but it didn’t sound like we would be bringing in starters, or even players that would be given a chance to fight for a place. Think of this what you will, but knowing arsene, I think he’s keeping an eye on the younguns as usual. We have some decent players coming through and I’m sure arsene wants to leave some space open for them. Has anyone been watching the reserve league and nextgen? Holy **** they’re impressive.

    Considering I’m right about finding non-starters, I doubt it’s easy to find a player who has quality to add and is willing to warm the bench. I’m sure arsene wanted to find someone but strictly under those conditions. Yes I’m a little surprised we couldn’t find ONE, but I’ve never managed a club

  • avatar Limpar

    I also think players like diaby & Ramsey will come good this season. You have to have faith in the players we originally invested in that still have potential & the only way to do that is to give them space to play. Just like we did with van Persie last season
    There’s no one better at judging that , & with bigger balls when executing it than Arsene wenger. I think he’s one of the bravest managers in world football when it comes to putting himself on the line to give players a chance when he believes in them , that deserves massive respect.
    Btw Sorry for veering off topic from original post

  • avatar Woolwich Peripatetic

    The U21/NextGen team(s) are ferocious. I caught some of the highlights from the Marseille match, sometimes they lose the ball; you blink and they have it back again. I’m not sure Marseille’s youth knew what hit them in that first half.

  • avatar Shard

    bob

    If that was intended at me then let me tell you now that I had no intention of questioning your loyalty, failed or otherwise. I was asking because I was genuinely interested to see what theory you would have as to why the board don;t spend the money. I’ve heard all sorts of nonsense about self enrichment and you seem to have fallen into that trap too. Of course it COULD be just self enrichment, but that would only be in the form of increased share price, which is only enriching if you sell. Do you believe that’s it? Or is there another reason you can think of.

    The thing is, you could be right. In terms of the board not being willing to spend the money which would go towards winning the title. The jump from top 3 or 4 to winners, in terms of investment, is huge, and of course, with no clear guarantee that we’d actually finish higher in the table at all. But of course, that decision doesn’t have to be a self serving decision. It could just be what they feel is in the club’s best interest.

  • avatar Persian gunner

    Dear bob
    You are one of my favorites here and it is always nice to read your comments
    I believe this team needs to be strengthened, and I can see us getting better
    We were very fragile defensively, so much relied on the dutch traitor for goal scoring and we lack a creative midfielder and… Things have changed, all and all to solve our last season problems!

    It is so damn hard to read all those anti Wenger comments all around the Internet, and it hurts even more when lots of them are coming from our own fans!
    It is a critical period of time when we should stand by our team and manager and support
    You are not AAA for sure, and I’m telling you, this team is getting better :)

  • avatar Shard

    oh and another thing. I’m not saying this because you brought it up bob. I was just thinking about it a few days ago. I was thinking if we have a deep enough squad, and like you I reached the conclusion that if we don’t get the injuries we always do, then we do have enough cover.

    It is just that I had the thought, and have had the feeling, that this season we may not be subjected to as many injustices as seasons past. It started with the 30% ownership rules being changed, then other clubs talking about England having an FFP equivalent, and finally with Gazidis being appointed to the FA governing bodies. Maybe, just maybe, Arsenal have been active in the back channels of football politics, and Wenger knows something? A bit of a long shot, and we’ll see soon enough, with th ref reviews and list of bad tackles etc. But that is a feeling I had, and it might offer an explanation for why we weren’t desperate to sign.

    Oh, and another thing. We weren’t going for a zero spend. We did try to sign Mirallas, who apparently chose everton because they guaranteed more playing time. Also, the Sahin deal showed we were looking for someone in midfield too. Sahin was a player of the right quality, and right availabilty, but the deal wasn’t right. We probably couldn’t find a player matching all those three attributes at this time.

  • avatar Shard

    that’s 2 another things for you in one post :)

  • avatar Goona Gal

    So it was a draw for the Spuds and big congrats to Houghton & Norwich.

    I also want to mention our loanee’s, first Ryo at Wigan, he didn’t get much game time and if there was a game I would rather he sat out, it was this one against Stoke. He helped relieve some of the pressure on the defence by though.

    Afobe did’nt get much time on the pitch either but apparently was a threat when he came on. Bolton have got a dodgy defence that has not been addressed by Coyle.

    ….and a brief mention for Almunia who had 5 goals past him. I am sure it will be ‘the former Arsenal player this, the former Arsenal player that’ and his fragile confidence would of definately taken a hit.

  • avatar bob

    Shard,
    Thank you for being forthright, as ever. Honestly I’m puzzled, and trying hard to make sense of this. . As ever, we can’t know. And from what I can see I don’t think this Board has helped the club in this window when it could and should have. My antennae says there is a big story to be told brewing there. My fear is that we are being fattened for a big sell-off of those more valuable shares. I feel that the flip side of zero transfer balance is that the rest (CL, Real Estate fattens the share value). The insurance we need – and the striker/midfielder we both want, and we’re not ignorant – is deemed not “top top top.” I truly fear that we as fans are caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place. Who can trust either of the two biggest shareholders to do anything other than fatten the cow. I see nothing they’ve done to attract long-term avid sponsorship deals in 2014. I feel that we’ve had ingredients for top-flight excellence on the pitch this very season, and that they won’t go beyond ZTB. It’s not either ZTB or the Big Flash. There is a middle ground that they will not spend for. Right now, just after the window closing, I feel sadness and suspicion – of course with no direct evidence, how could I – that the major stockholder and his Board allies are fattening the cow. This is not the Board that treasured our legacy. (Nor is the Usmanov alternative).

  • avatar bob

    p.s. sorry, meant to write “It’s not either ZTB or the Big Splash.”

  • avatar bob

    Shard,
    Also, your hunch on something positive afoot is well put, for sure. I so hope you’re right. My take is fearful and not as timely as we’d like on the eve of our next big match. I don’t want to be the dark cloud. I just feel that unless you’re right, we – as loyal eyes-open fans – are being taken for a ride; one that promises or gives a glimpse of the moon, while draining off the fuel supply that’s needed to get there. I don’t feel trusting, right now and can only hope it’s just me and pray you’re scenario comes true. It would be very good for us and for football.

  • avatar Woolwich Peripatetic

    Bob,
    Are you still taking the whole Van Persie thing personally? I think you keep missing what that transfer so vividly demonstrates, for clubs that rely on income to fund expenditure, big purchases only go ahead when the money no object clubs allow it. Now you can argue that United have done what we should have done, gone out and bought a world class player if the opportunity arose, regardless of whether that purchase makes any sort of football sense. But their owners are desperate and ours are not. They are facing a season ticket holders revolt an we are not (yet). They are facing up to a reality where they have to buy in good young players and their draw is reduced every time they fail to win something, whereas our draw is our manager and the opportunities he affords to young players.

  • avatar Goona Gal

    @ Woolwich – RE Nextgen, Barca Vs Arsenal jr’s is a game that would be a big stadium filler.

    @ Limpar – I am glad someone else also rates Ramsey. He is a talented player that needs to relax and find his rhythm within the team, if he can develop an understanding with the other midfield players and strikers he will be a tremendous asset. Ramsey has had hardly any time with the first team and new players which I thought would be a negative from his Team GB involvement.

  • avatar bob

    Persian gooner,
    I also can’t stand where the AAA and the Media Gloaters are coming from. I also find it hard to be blind to problems that we could have done something about – foremost, covering ourselves with quality backup in the likely injury times to come. I hope Shard is right in his view of what might be helping us in the background on the injury front. But I guess I felt since the last match that Stoke was still Vicious in some attacks on Carzola and Arteta, etc.; and the signs to me were that they – and like-minded clubs – can still get away with enough of it, via the Refshite, to inflict an injury that we’re not ready for. It’s a massive gamble not to insure this. More of a gamble than to spend well. It might well be is that something positive on that front and that Shard’s intuitions are spot on; or that this gamble – whatever its reasons – will hurt us.

  • avatar Arvind

    The appointment of Gazidis to the top is the important piece; I think and the fact the Lee Mason brandished cards to Stoke. And the fact that when I had the volume on yesterday night on a Arsenal Stoke re-run..the commentary was actually non biased and consistent for a while. Still favoring the slightly ‘robust’ style but consistent none the less.

    More players, Bob, are always going to be welcome. Who doesn’t like backups? In life..in our jobs..with houses…with infrastructure…and ..with football teams. One can never have enough backups. Do we have enough? Maybe. Maybe not. There’s a reason its said that Hindsight is a wonderful teacher…

    And where would you get backups anyway? The fact that both Sahin and Essien were loan deals means straight away that AW knows that Coquelin and Frimpong are good enough to step in for Diaby when he’s injured. Up front is bit more of a risk…but really..throwing in half a new team…is a lot. I can already see trouble with Podolski, Giroud and Cazorla playing together..with the unpredictable Gervinho and Theo..more new players is just a big big risk. Might as well stick with what we have.

    That’s just me though.

  • avatar bob

    Woolwich,
    To be honest, I don’t know exactly what our owners are about. Do you? (I’m not being snarky, what is your take on them?) Indeed, Manure is desperate – and must be – because they have sold the fanbase that a Championship is their birthright. And it is time for another massive push for the Rednose XX after last season’s failure. RVP fills that desperate need. And we gave it to them. And they wish to stay the flagship of the EPL.

    Yes, our owners don’t and can’t do that, based on the evident gulf between us and the financial giants. So we’re not desperate in that sense. However, AFC owners did hint and tell and seduce us (through Gazidis and AW) that yes, we will compete for top honors. (And, yes, legalistically-speaking, we factually do compete, as does every team, technically.) And they do tell us, and early on, that yes, this year funds are available – and the real estate sale (bandied about) and the CL finish (less bandied about for some reason) would seem to suggest that, yes, this is the case.

    So, yes, fans like me bit. And yes, bit hard. And take it personally. This because I did think we genuinely could have competed for the EPL Championship – against anyone this season – PROVIDED that we would have played hardball with RVP and said no to him (like Mancini did to Tevez last season), and kept Alex (3 years to go) Song onside with something of a raise (he was underpaid). But both midfield and goal production have been put at risk. This, of course, is in no small part down to Darren Damien Dein’s conscience-free connivance. But then, at a minimum, why not at least do everything to ensure against catastrophic injury with midfield and front-line purchases? Like I say, I don’t get what top AFC ownership is about. Unless it is trying to fatten the cow for a sell-off at some unspecified near to mid term date. Again, what do you think they’re about?

  • avatar bob

    Arvind,
    It’s not hindsight to want insurance, but it’s foresight. Such as two winter transfer windows ago when no amount of fan agitation and advocacy – and there was a lot of it in the fall, looking forward – could move AFC to purchase further defensive coverage. And to what effect? Chronic and further injuries, an over-stretched team, and our blowout in the 4 competitions. That’s what not spending with foresight can lead to.

    This season, who’s our up-front reserve? Chamakh? Walcott as striker? Perhaps a striker-free offense? (That could be.) You say better to go with what we have? You mean there won’t be injuries? And, yes, I agree there are some early signs that possibly the new trio won’t play at the same time.

    Based on track record, it’s expectable that Diaby will suffer some knocks. I hope you’re right that AW is that convinced that Coq and Frimpong will be able to slot in and do the business. I’m arguing that Coq is promising but still untested and that Frimpong is coming back from injury and is still raw and with the layoff won’t hit the ground running. Basically, I would like us not to have to drop points and dig ourselves another big hole to have to crawl out of.

  • avatar bob

    Arvind,
    “Where would you get backups anyway?”
    Better to ask those paid to study this 24×7 and the world-wide best scouting network. Plus those weren’t the only two names. There was Capouye and DeJong and the two Newcastle boyz, and others. None of this is easy, as we well know. But to act like nothing could have been achieved is well, I don’t know. You tell me.

  • avatar Arvind

    Sorry…I meant to ask in “which position” when I said “where” above. My bad. Of course it is the scouting network at fault if we are not finding people; I don’t think its that though..its just AFC/AW not seeing value in a deal (rightly or wrongly). I don’t nor do I pretend to know what Arsene thought. But as always been my stance on here for however long I’ve been here…I do think Arsene knows. And he’s delivered..year after year. Yes its all subjective..what is “delivered”.

    But its just 2 games Bob, lets wait and watch. You’re right about one thing for sure though…if I’m proved right it in the end, I’d be happy yes..that my judgement was correct but that matters little if Arsenal do not meet their goals and “fail” whatever that may be. Similarly if I’m wrong…I promise you I will come out and admit it..if I’m alive and with an Internet connection : ).

    Till January and another period of madness…let us just wait..and cross our fingers that Arsene knew…for another season. Precious little else we can do ..anyway.

  • avatar Persian gunner

    This is really nice here, as we can talk and have some emotional ventilation!
    Being an Arsenal fan was never easy, as there are lots of glory hunting plastic fans all around the world who would support the “winner clubs!” and this made every Arsenal fan to feel the bitter taste of loneliness
    We are hurt, and frustrated, and we need to talk, thank u so much bob! For dragging us into this arguments by your comments
    But again, I want to tell you that the club is changing into better conditions, we brought in experienced players and we can see this new diffencive awareness all over the squad, and then the club is getting rid of old useless players
    These are things that we wanted to happen and here they are!
    Of course we could enjoy having a talented creative midfielder, and I am going to believe Arsene Wengers word about working hard for that “top top top” player

  • avatar Matt Clarke

    One transfer that has not got a lot of attention (and I, for one, will not believe it unil it appears on the club website):
    http://www.macedonianfootball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4969:dejan-iliev-joins-arsenal&catid=13:international&Itemid=64

  • avatar Goona Gal

    @ Persian Gunner, respectfully I can’t say I agree with your last post, but then I seem to have an ability adjust to present circumstances and process things easier than some Arsenal fans. Seemingly a rare commodity in the Arsenal blogasphere.

  • avatar Goona Gal

    @ Matt Clarke – Youth players don’t normally get announced.

  • avatar Matt Clarke

    @GG – Ahh, thank you :)

  • avatar Goona Gal

    @ Matt, no probs. I have a vague interest in the GK situation as I thought it was a area that needed strengthening when I heard Fabianski & Mannone might be off. I haven’t had a chance to see him in action yet, but I have been told that Martinez is very good. Chezzer & Mannone count as homegrown and I think it is purposeful long term planning to make sure our GK’s continue to be so in future.