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In the many comments on the post re the Wigan game there were a number that said that we should recognise that Wenger and his youth project had failed. One in particular caught my eye: it said that it was harder to recognise this and face it than it was simply to sit at home and say, “Wenger is great”. But recognise it we should.
As it happened I was away over the weekend, and not in Wigan, so I didn’t see the match – I watched it in a pub. But having read this before setting out on the long journey home late on Sunday evening, I thought about this. Four big points came up as I pondered, and if you have a moment I would like to share them with you.
First: is Arsenal now in failure mode?
Certainly if your approach is to say that winning trophies is success, then clearly we have failed. Apart from the Youth Cup last year, the Championship of the Youth Team with about two months to spare this year, and the inevitable double of the Women’s Team each year (which I suspect most readers won’t count) we have not been winning things. So on that basis yes a failure.
But there are other criteria. Others will of course disagree with me, but the fact that we have played in the Champs League for each of the past, what is it, ten years? is a success for me. I think only two other teams have done this.
That means consistently being in the top four clubs in what is considered the hardest league in the world.
I don’t mean to say that I am satisfied and don’t want more, but I find there is a land of difference between utterly satisfied (the Unbeaten Season, the Double Seasons) and total dissatisfaction (Bruce Rioch’s season, the endless years of winning nothing before the 1971 double…) It is a period in which I am not totally satisfied, but I feel good about where we are and what we are doing. I see better times ahead.
So I personally don’t feel that we are in failure mode. If you do, fair enough, its your view, and as I have said many times before I won’t cut out your comments if you choose to come here. But you must recognise that there are many other sites where the editors and regular writers are much more in line with your thinking.
Second, are we doing more than hanging on? Put another way, are we moving towards a better future?
I certainly think so, because I think the youth project is working, and because I look at the clubs around us, and consider what they are up to.
I’ll deal with the youth project in a moment, but for now, I want to talk about context. It is one of the concepts that I think is often ignored, and that I feel leads to a distorted view.
The current climate is one in which two teams can spend anything on any player they want, while other teams have tried to stay on top by spending money they don’t have. Others again in an attempt to get the money have opened themselves up to financial disaster by believing in people who come riding in promising the earth.
Arsenal has not gone down any of these routes, has built a magnificent stadium and training ground, has set up a network of spies across the world, and has made a profit each year.
Now this to me is important. I genuinely believe that many of the clubs in the EPL are about to collapse and do a Leeds and a Portsmouth. I know the regular view is that Man U is too big to go bust, and that the Red Knights will rescue them – but when I look and see that the man running the Red Knights is at Goldman Sachs (under FSA investigation), and I look at the level of debt, I don’t believe it.
Everything is of course down to one’s own analysis – but I do think one should give a reasoned answer as to why Arsenal should have followed the Man U, the Man C or the Tottenham model – or come to that the Aston Villa model.
My point is that all these models have failed. The one that might look ok is the Chelsea/Man C model – but here there is still no response to the Uefa rulings on club finances other than to say “we don’t agree, and we reject them”. The EPL takes that view (especially over the benefactor rule) but still nothing is moving. As matters stand, if Man C / Chelsea continue to buy players from owner money, after next season they will not qualify for the Champs League.
So, in answer to “are we doing more than hanging on?” I would say yes – we are a top club, and the only club in the EPL that is ready for the new financial realities, and is regularly in the top four. I would say that if you wish to judge Wenger properly you need to answer not just the success/failure question, but also a question that takes into effect the financial realities.
Third – the youth project. Success or failure?
In fact there are two youth projects. One involves bringing in young players from other clubs, nurturing them for a few years, maybe sending out on loan, and then either selling them at a profit because they don’t make it, or gradually bringing them into the first team.
The other involves bringing kids through from the age of 11 at Arsenal, and then as they mature, introducing them into the first team.
The latter of these two projects only started in earnest about seven years ago. We had a youth system before that but it was not, for whatever reason, really successful at bringing many youngsters through.
However the group who won the youth double last season, and ran away with the youth league this year, were quite different. I read that 9 of the 11 who were on the field for the youth cup final last season had been together since the age of 11. They are now 17 and 18, and are looking to break forward into the first team. That group are too young to have had much influence yet, but if you look at them you will see an astonishing achievement with them, with an amazing future to come.
So on the basis of bringing in 11 year olds and picking real talent, I think yes, we have success.
Let’s look at the players we bring in and nurture for a smaller number of years. Among such players at the moment we might consider…
- Merida
- Vela
- Walcott
- Clichy
- Denilson
- Fabregas
- Song
- Bendtner
- Djourou
- Diaby
- Ramsey
Although some of these players were recognised when we bought them, none of them were major names of the type other clubs tend to buy. As such they were not ready to slot into the team the moment we got them, but we have seen signs since that they may well become very good players. Some of course have now matured into brilliant players.
I think that is one hell of a list. Even if you are unhappy with a few of them – noting perhaps that Bendtner doesn’t work enough, Diaby is erratic, Denilson is lightweight, etc (and those are not my views) the fact is that we have brought these players through – and even if you take the doubts out it is a great list.
So if we combine the group that joined us around 11 years of age (the Jay Emmanuel Thomas gang) and the players who we brought in from elsewhere and who are making it through, I am not sure that the youth system is not working.
Fourth – the balance of youth and age isn’t right
This is the bit where the injuries have taken us apart. Something like seven of our regular key players were out of the Wigan game, and six out of the Tottenham game. And not just any old players. The often cited spine of the team is an issue here: Fabregas, Arshavin, Van Persie, Gallas, Vermaelen, Ramsey, Song all lost to us. Eduardo, still only a shadow of his former glory.
No, the balance of the team was not right for those games, because of the injuries.
We have now had 3 consecutive years of these injuries, and I think Arsene Wenger is now recognising that he has to assume that this change over the last three years is going to continue.
I saw one correspondent say that we get the injuries because they are injuries to youngsters – and youngsters get injured more easily. I think not – Van Persie, Arshavin, Gallas, Vermaelen – these are not youngsters.
No, the injury issue comes from the change in tactics of the lesser clubs who have moved to Zero Football, and the increase in speed of the game. It is that combination that leads to the injuries – and so we need a bigger squad. It was not something we could have recognised before.
Fifth, in evaluating whether everything is a failure there must be a perspective.
We had a run of seven victories, and then we stumbled, as the injury crisis just got worse and worse, day by day. So we lost to Tottenham and Wigan at a time when we were not going to win the league.
Not nice. Not welcome, but hardly enough to say, this is the end, we are useless, Wenger must go, his whole project has failed.
I don’t think it has failed at all. And here’s the positive side
1. We are financially viable and we are meeting the Uefa financial rules
2. We do have a successful youth policy with a lot of players coming through who are stunning and brilliant.
3. We have the money to go out and buy players, as I suspect we will this year. Players who will overcome the problems we have faced through the unprecedented rise in injuries caused by Zero Football. That will remove that problem.
4. We have the continuity of time in the top levels of the EPL and Champs League that mean that we are ready to compete.
I do however have one worry.
The hysteria at not winning the league last season was disgraceful, and resulted in those of us who have a positive view of Wenger’s approach running a march through the streets to demonstrate in the final match against Stoke.
We now have the same hysteria again, and I fear that ultimately the negative views might persuade Wenger to move on, or simply retire. If that happens suddenly and not in a planned way, I do fear for the club, because I just can’t see who has got the ability to run the club and keep us profitable.
And this really is my point. We need the profit. Although Ferguson and others are excellent managers who can win things, to do it they need massive sums to spend endlessly. If Wenger were to go, we would have a manager like that, the debt would pile up, and sooner or later, we would be in the state of those around us – utterly broke and/or unable to meet Uefa financial regulations.
Occasionally I amuse myself (usually very late at night) thinking that maybe someone close to Mr Wenger might actually read the positive words that are put here, and pass them on to the top man. If they ever do, I do hope they tell him, there are a lot of us out here who believe he is the greatest thing ever to happen to this club. Greater than Norris who created the club, paid for Highbury, and brought in Chapman. Greater than Chapman who gave us our first trophies. Greater than Allison who gave us such success.
I would like those who think Wenger must go, to read the history of Herbert Chapman, and to remember that he arrived in 1925 (I think – as I said it is late at night) and didn’t start winning championships until 1931. Just remember that. He almost left, before he delivered.
Great revolutions can take time. And yes, it could all be so easily thrown away.
Tony Attwood
Absolutely fantastic post Tony… Thanks Andrew for patching this into your post…I believe in AW!! You know here in India – the one thing I always maintain is the fact that i believe that Arsenal fans are fans of football first… we love the science we love the games we love the nurturing process all of that… most importantly i believed that we weren’t the kind of fans that would turn on our managers! Don’t for one second think that I’m happy with our performance in the last couple of games – but i trust & believe in AW to rectify the situation and bring back the glory…But it frustrates me no end to have (who i thought were logical)illogical fans talking like blondes about sacking AW! So to them i say – Get your heads out of your asses, get your chins up – We are the Arsenal – we do have the greatest manager and we need always believe in him and our club!
I find it depressing to read the comments from Arsenal supporters on the Wigan game. They must have read some of the stuff on this site in order to want to comment here. Yet they have zero grasp of the fantastic achievement that is the current Arsenal FC.
They must all be City types or others who believe that money grows on trees. Arsenal has achieved competitiveness while not making a loss on football business. How clever is it to buy your way to success? When Arsenal becomes the dominant team in England and Europe, as it will in 2011/12, perhaps these supporters of feeble brains will see the light.
I see all this outrage directed at AW for not “doing something”, but I saw not a single comment on Walter’s observation on the two refereeing decisions immediately preceding the first Wigan goal. That is where our anger should be aimed. Like the West Ham game and the Burnley game, terrible refereeing cost us dearly.
We have eight automatic starters, if available.
• Almunia
• Gallas
• Vermaelen
• Clichy
• Song
• Cesc
• RvP
• Arshavin
One out of eight is not enough.
I detect more than a little schadenfreude in some of the comments. They are so unhappy about our lack of spending that they want us to lose. Wankers.
I agree with your setniments and we need to remember that one other major European side went years without winning a trophy …..Barcelona and they relied an building from within.What does irrtitate me is that Willshere and Szczeny have been on loan at Bolton and Brentford when they oculd have waltzed into the team against Wigan and had a chance to show their talents. To all those who are calling for Wenger’s head two questions 1) Who the hell would you replace him with (and don’t say Mourinho , he only follows the money) and 2) listen to someone who has been wtaching the Arse for 55 years…nothing,but nothing compares to the quality of football and the success that Arsene has brought to us.
Let’s not fall into the trap of Man U, Liverpool and Chelsea where we sacrifice the ethos of the club for a quick thrill. Arsenal stands for something in football, the worst thing we can say about anyone is ‘he’s not an Arsenal player’and we don’t just mean in terms of skill, its attitude, it’s the reason Arshavin should go….sadly along with Eduardo (the dreadful injury destroyed his confidence), Silvestre (good one Fergie),Fabianski, Almunia…and is Walcott ever going to mature? We have a tremendous chnace to put things right (a bit) on Saturday when the team that offers no value for money comes to town….
In actual sense we have gone a step backwards this season. Last season we got to the semis of the CL and FA, lost six games in the league and conceded 2 less than we have this season (which still has 3 games to go). The only positive is in the attacking stats that hav improved considerably! Something i believe to have come about from our defending from the front attitude in early season.
We still have a lot to learn and we need not look further than barcelona. They have built a team through their academy, are not afraid to spend the odd 40mil pounds and have great teamwork (NOTE: they don’t have world class defenders but have conceded only 19 goals all season! 10 fewer than real madrid and in a league that values attack)
Cape Gooner, yes the outrage of conceding the last two goals were so big, I also was furious but also for other reasons – like you mention. The ref had put on a Wigan shirt in those last 15 minutes. Before he had a rather good game, he missed two penalty’s one for each side but he was not so biased. But at the end he gave us nothing. When we was fouled he gave it the other way (begin of the equaliser), no corner when it was clear to see that is was a corner for us.
Even my match commentator was wondering what was the matter with the ref and saw it like I saw things.
Why worry,
there will be titles after pain
There will be trophies after rain
These things have always been the same
So why worry now
@Maurice…
I love the way you hav skipped the way you have ignored our progress in the league. While last year we went upto semis we were beaten by Man U. Not that we would have defeated them for sure but atleast Barca is a team quiet far away for now.
Our reserves played in FA cup and we lost. How can we say that we have not progressed. We have lots of mental energy and we can kick out team who play zero football. There is only one area where we need to progress this year is Man U and Chelsea. And I am very sure that we will do it this year.
Maurice, MU and Chelsea also have lost more games if you compare with last season.
The champion will have at least 4 points less than MU last year and if MU win it will be at least 5 points less.
Chelsea and MU also went our earlier in the CL compared to last year.
So you could say that the topteam all have gone backwards compared to last year (Liverpool…even far worse). It could also just mean that the EPL has become even more difficult to win.
To the “Wenger out” brigade, please see Terence McGovern’s comment of “Be careful of what you wish for.” AW has performed near miracles for this club on a shoe string.
I wonder where he’d be on a “points gained per transfer millions spent” table. What would it look like?
I wonder where MFU and Chel$ki would be if their ‘spine’ was missing for as long as ours through injuries? As close as we were? I doubt it.
I wonder where we’d be had he said after the Invincibles…”Can’t improve on an unbeaten season. I’m off.”
Good article, well argued and as ever, very consistent- only one thing missing – the evidence of my own eyes. An unbelievably optimistic view of the future- does not address how Arsenal will address the defensive vulnerability which Arsene himself says we have had against the top sides.
Correct me If I am wrong,but is it not next season that heralds the introduction of UEFA’s new rules regarding squad size and composition?
Personally I think it is implimenting division through football but that opinion aside, It would be worthwhile taking that new template and running it over our current squad.
I suspect that these new rules will be causing chaos for other teams whilst I believe that we have already done the leg work involved (bit like our financial policies).
Either way, it is probably worth one of those immaculately prepared articles of insight there Tony or at the very least provide the Doom & Gloom Brigade with potential players whom they can gleeefully say have to go under new rules.
(Bit like throwing a tennis ball for a dog. You know what he is going to do but gives you intervals of peace inbetween his return visits)
PS. superb soundbite Abishek Kumar! My literary hat is off to you.
Very inspiring stuff in the following blog. A must read.
http://www.stonecoldarsenal.com/2010/04/why-arsenal-must-persist-with-vision-barcelona-les-bleus-case-studies/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+StoneColdArsenal+%28STONE+COLD+ARSENAL+BLOG%29
Managers who could replace Wenger (and who are always French):
1. Laurent Blanc
2. Claude Guell
3. Didier Deschamps
Athough, one problem is that I doubt the current board have the footballing nous to select a great up-and-coming manager with a penchant for youth development. We were lucky that David Dein was running the club when he appointed Wenger. I can’t see anyone else on that board with the inspiration to do something similar.
Gf60
April 19th, 2010 at 10:19 am
To the “Wenger out” brigade, please see Terence McGovern’s comment of “Be careful of what you wish for.” AW has performed near miracles for this club on a shoe string.
I wonder where he’d be on a “points gained per transfer millions spent” table. What would it look like?
——–
They did this once on the Guardian. I think Arsenal ranked 4th or 5th. One of the relegation strugglers was first. Or maybe Aston Villa.
it has failed end of story.
None of the players except ransey, song fan amd clichey will make it.
The emporor has no clothws.
If he doesnt over haul this team we will struggle next year.
Hi MoMoney and Terence..
Thanks for your comment and your appreciation.. I just wrote it in frustration without realising what I wrote..
Best comment here – stubby224 @ 12.46. Nice sarcasm mate. I hope that is sarcasm of course. If not then you are just an idiot.
Once again I think the big thing we have to ask is “what were the alternatives” to this youth project. Some people say things like “AW should have kept players like Pires and Vieira while bringing in the youngsters” but of course that wasnt an option and people are deluding themselves if they think it was.
The options, 4 years ago, were:
1. Keep the “Invincibles”, maintain the high wage bill, and have ZERO money to buy anyone. ZERO MONEY. That is, 0, zero, nothing, absolutely nada. Look at the accounts if you think that is being extreme. That is a fact. So had AW kept the like of Vieira, Henry, Pires (and not even all of them, just some of them) we would now be in debt, have none of the young players, and probably be in MAJOR trouble.
or,
2. Rebuild the team, completely. Sell the players that could raise money and try to get as much as you possibly can for those guys in return. Lower the wage bill in order to be able to expand the squad (people forget how thin our squad was in the Henry/Bergkamp/Vieira years). Build through youth (since we couldnt afford experience) and try to stay competitive until those youngsters grow up. Concede the fact that some of those youngsters would leave before the project reached its conclusion.
Those were the choices. There are many people that would have taken option 1. AW chose option 2. It was a hugely brave decision. Has it been a failure? Well, go back and look at the choices again. Ask the question again after having looked at the choices.
We are now coming out of the stadium rebuilding phase. We are not out of it yet. Anyone with a grasp of accounting will know that. When we come out of this phase we will be remarkably healthy. Would we be as healthy had AW chosen option 1? Again, go back and look at the choices he had and ask that question again?
I have said all along that AW should be judged next season. That is the season that is important. This team is still in the rebuilding phase right now and to say they are failing is ridiculous to me.
If people disagree with me please provide evidence form the accounts that shows that we could have taken alternative options to thsoe shown above.
@ Well endowed gooner.
This a fascinating accounting…esp if you look at 2004-2010.
More than proves the case for AW imho.
http://transferleague.co.uk/
Hello from Canada Everyone,
Tony – congratulations on perhaps the best post I have ever read in defence of our team’s manager and overall progress these past couple of years, though it pains me that in a winning-at-any-cost-hyper-obsessed sports culture AW constantly needs defending when from a total management view of sporting and business factors, he is clearly the best manager of any top side in the world. Full stop.
While there cannot be any real excuses to lose a late season match to a relegation threatened side inside of three minutes, we all need to remind ourselves of who we really are.
From a financial perspective as Tony has ably pointed out, Man U is a financial basket case and Chelsea and Man City are drawing from the largess of their benefactors.
Thinking about future team development, while many of us a sick of hearing of our perpetual “potential” while continuing year after year without silverware, we are in so much better position than say, Chelsea, who may very well go on to win the domestic double – yes – but with 7 players over thirty and an uncertain future at best.
And if you agree as I do with Mr. Khare’s post that real Gooners are fans of football first, then first and foremost among EPL and most European teams we are really all winners.
Finally, since it the beginning of the “2nd season” over here with (ice hockey) Stanley Cup playoffs, I remember (quite painfully) that I once used to bleed blue and white (the Leaf colours). It was 1967 since the once mighty Toronto Maple Leafs last won a cup and they have yet again missed the post-season this year. Oh to be a Gooneer…
Absolutely brilliant piece of writing by Mr Attwood and i agree with all the comments and also have been pro Wenger even before he went to Arsenal. My only gripe is the number of times Arsenal players set in to what appear a shooting or even have a go opportunity but make another pass. This may well be illustrated by the goal Danny Rose scored (or put in the box). Feeling is an Arsenal player would have trapped it and pas-Alex
That transfer league says everything really,how many managers in world football would be able to get the team into our league position with the budget we’ve had since the new stadium had to be financed?
Dein was right when he said wenger is a miracle worker.
Benitez is respected as one of the top coaches in the world, but could not manage with losing 1 midfielder this season.
We lost 4 starting midfielders last season, and still managed 2 semi finals and stayed in the top 4.
We have improved and gone much closer in the league this season, just have’t had the big game know how at certain times . Hopefully we can keep the squad together this summer and find the right couple of additions to take us to the next level.
Also I’m sure the injury crisis cannot be as bad as this again.
I really believe we are so close, and hope the players don’t lose faith because i feel that is the biggest danger to our developement.
GF60, thanks for this link. Very intresting.
To stay in the top 4 with that transfer budget… it is almost unbelievable. No other manager could do what he has done since the invicible season.
Yeah, why don’t we just sack the manager…. sigh…
If he ever leaves we should rename the stadium and give it his name.
I think the last two games will bring out a positive change. It has shown that we lack “that mental strength ” and ” squad depth” to go all the way. Arsene has done tremedously well and I am sure he has also seen the glaring and gaping holes in the squad. Fix them and we will do much much better next season. Arsenal we written off even before the season started. So I would say we have tried to hang in there till the last couple of weeks.
I do laugh at those that claim we have had five years of project youth and that it has failed, lets take each of these points
Five years – well only four years ago we were in CL final with a squad that had Lehman, Campbell, Toure, Cole, Bergkamp, Henry, Reyes, Pires, Ljunberg, Clichy, all memebers of the invincibles, alot of oldies there too,
Project youth – has worked, we have produced Cesc, that alone makes it worthwhile, but also from our academy Bendtner, is now part of first team squad, Djourou is too, then their is the other lads brought in at 17 or more, Song is a success, Denilson is good squad man, as is Diaby, Walcott, Ramsey,then we have the next generation of youth, those that came right the way from Hale End Academy from age 9 and 10, the Jack Wilsehre, Emmanuel-Thomas, Lansbury and Eastmond, all showed last year they are as good if not better than what any other academy have at present,
there are more players in each of the two caterogies(bought in/here since 9), we have since we moved to the Emirates have on average a profit of £9M a season on transfers, think about that, not one other club in the entire FAPL can say that, never mind still finish in top 4, so without bringing in experienced players, this squad full of project youth has kept us up near the top, if nothing else this shows it has worked,
yes no trophies yet, but if we measure it on trophies then no more than four side can be successful any season, has that made all the rest unsuccessful, of course it has not
Ok. I’ll put my hand up and say I was extremly disappointed (not to the extent of asking for the boss to resign though) but to the extent where I wanted some players to go. Reading this blog has put things into perspective and I see the light. There’s always next season.
this is the only site that makes me feel right for supporting arsenal. half of our own fans on other websites make me feel like i’m supporting chelsea or the scum!
great post
@Abhishek and @Walter, I agree that in the league all the big teams have not performed as well as they did last season. This should not be a reason to celebrate thou! We should be asking ourselves could we have taken advantage of this slip? In the coming seasons we will have other teams coming into the frame with all the money being poured into football and this season has definitely been one of missed chances and opportunities!